Dear valued clients and friends,
Each month we provide a market overview and pick out the M&A transactions, investment activities, regulation updates, and event highlights that we find relevant to your businesses to help you make informed decisions, solve problems, or gain a new perspective.
Our expertise, experience, and in-depth understanding of the market also have assisted many of you in augmenting the augmenting the right strategies, finding suitable targets, connecting with prominent investors and entrepreneurs, and closing deals successfully. So stay informed with us to make the right decisions for your businesses and investments!
MARKET OVERVIEW
February 2025 marked a positive step forward for Vietnam’s economy. According to the latest report from the General Statistics Office (GSO), the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) in February 2025 is estimated to have increased by 17.2% compared to the same period last year. Overall, for the first two months of the year, the IIP rose by 7.2% compared to the same period in 2024.
Regarding domestic consumption, the total retail sales of goods and consumer service revenue at current prices in February 2025 are estimated to have reached VND 561.7 trillion. Although this figure decreased by 2.5% compared to the previous month due to reduced spending after the Lunar New Year holiday, it still increased by 9.4% compared to the same period last year, reflecting stable consumer purchasing power.
Notably, in the first two months of 2025, Vietnam recorded a trade surplus of USD 1.5 billion. Additionally, the total registered foreign direct investment (FDI) in Vietnam reached nearly USD 6.9 billion, a sharp increase of 35.5% compared to the same period last year, demonstrating international investors’ confidence in the country’s economic prospects.
These figures not only reflect a robust recovery but also underscore the growth of Vietnam’s economy in the face of global volatility. ASART continues to maintain its forecast that Vietnam’s economic growth in 2025 will reach 7.5%.
Source: GSO, ASART analysis
Inflation and Interest Rates
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in February 2025 increased by 2.91% compared to the same period in 2024. On average, for the first two months of 2025, the CPI rose by 3.27% year-on-year, while core inflation increased by 2.97%. The main factors driving the CPI increase in February 2025 include rising pork prices due to a decline in supply, higher costs for dining out, rental housing, and transportation services in response to growing consumer demand.
Source: GSO, ASART analysis
Overall, as of the end of February, deposit interest rates remained low, with banks tending to lower deposit rates following directives from the Prime Minister and the State Bank of Vietnam to stabilize interest rates and reduce lending rates. The interest rates of the Big 4 banks continued to hover around 4.7%.
Trade Activities
In February 2025, Vietnam’s total trade value was estimated at USD 63.8 billion, an increase of 33% compared to the same period last year. Exports were projected at USD 31.1 billion, up 25.7% year-on-year, while imports were estimated at USD 32.7 billion, reflecting a 40.9% increase.
For the first two months of 2025, total import and export turnover reached USD 127.1 billion, up 12% year-on-year, with exports rising by 8.4% and imports increasing by 15.9%. The trade balance recorded a surplus of USD 1.5 billion.
Source: GSO, ASART analysis
Investment and M&A
In February 2025, total Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows into Vietnam reached USD 2.6 billion, accounting for 37.7% of the country’s total investment in the first two months of the year. By the end of February, total registered FDI in Vietnam was approximately USD 6.9 billion, marking a 60.4% increase compared to the same period in 2024, while the actual disbursed capital from FDI projects was estimated at around USD 3.0 billion, up 5.4% y-o-y.
FDI M&A activities (share purchases) continued to show positive figures in the first two months of the year, with 553 transactions and a total capital contribution of USD 0.5 billion, an increase of 103.8% compared to the same period last year. Among these, investment in the manufacturing and processing sector reached USD 0.19 billion, accounting for 37.5% of the total capital contribution; professional, scientific, and technological activities attracted USD 0.2 billion, making up 29.6%; while other sectors received USD 0.2 million, representing 32.9%.
Source: GSO, ASART analysis
Exchange Rate
The VND/USD selling exchange rate at Vietcombank increased from 25,300 to 25,730 in February, equivalent to a 1.7% appreciation from the beginning of the month. We forecast that the exchange rate may continue to rise throughout 2025 due to pressure from unpredictable U.S. trade policies and policy changes under U.S. President Donald Trump.
*Ask rate on the last day of the month
Source: Vietcombank, ASART analysis
M&A SPOTLIGHTS
RELEVANT NEWS & INFORMATION
REGULATION UPDATES
| Name | Status | Effective Date | Key Summary |
| Data Law | Approved | 1/7/2025 | Regulations on the fundamental aspects of digital data, including the construction, development, protection, management, processing, and utilization of digital data. |
| Law on Value Added Tax (amended) | Approved | 1/7/2025 | The regulations highlight several key points, including: (i) A 5% tax rate applied to fertilizers, machinery, and specialized equipment for agricultural production, as well as fishing vessels, to help mitigate cost increases, support domestic production amid competition with imported goods, and provide stronger support for agricultural production. (ii) Raising the revenue threshold exempt from taxation to 200 million VND per year. |
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Disclaimer
This newsletter is of general nature. It is for informational purpose only. It is not intended to serve as advice or recommendation, or to address the circumstances of any entity, individual, or matter. No one should rely and/or act on the information presented without appropriate professional advice from ASART. ASART accepts no liability for the content of this newsletter, or for the consequences of any actions taken based on the opinions and information provided. Where it contains statements, estimates, and projections with respect to the anticipated future performance of Vietnam, markets, companies, employees and related figures, such statements, estimates, and projections may or may not prove to be correct. There is neither representation nor guarantee made on the accuracy and completeness of the content presented. Any person or entity who uses this newsletter to form a discussion, decide, or perform any actions must verify all relevant matters including all the information and statements contained in this newsletter, and must rely upon their own enquiries, investigations, judgement rather than upon the information and statements contained herein. ASART does not accept responsibility for any information contained herein and disclaims all liability to any entity, person, and matter arising out of or in connection with this newsletter.
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