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Changes in U.S. trade policy, coupled with prolonged geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, continue to heighten uncertainty across global financial and commodity markets, making inflation one of the key risks facing the global economy. Against this backdrop, major central banks have maintained a cautious stance. The European Central Bank has continued to adjust its interest rate policy, while the U.S. Federal Reserve has signaled a continued tightening bias as inflation in the United States shows signs of reaccelerating.

Inflation has been a key concern in many countries, leaning expectations toward tighter monetary policy in major economies. Evolving U.S. trade policies and continued geopolitical tensions in the Middle East contributed to further uncertainty across global financial and commodity markets. Meanwhile, Vietnam’s economy stays on a sturdy growth path in the first five months of 2026 despite rising external uncertainty.

Vietnam's economy sustained strong growth momentum in the first 4 months of 2026, despite rising external headwinds. Growth was led by resilient domestic demand, robust industrial production, and accelerating public investment. Industrial production increased by 9.2% year-on-year, led by manufacturing (+9.9%), while retail sales grew 11.1% as consumption continued to recover.

Vietnam's economy grew 7.83% year-on-year in Q1 2026, accelerating from 7.07% a year earlier despite the spillover from US–Israel–Iran tensions and a sharp rise in global energy prices. Growth was well-balanced across industry, services, and agriculture, and was reinforced by two structural milestones: the formal completion of the country’s leadership transition at the first session of the 16th National Assembly and FTSE Russell's confirmed upgrade of Vietnam to Secondary Emerging Market status, effective September 2026.

Vietnam’s economy maintained solid momentum in the first two months of 2026, supported by strong industrial production, and continued public investment acceleration. Industrial output grew 10.4% year-on-year during the period, while retail sales increased 7.9%, reflecting sustained domestic demand amid Lunar New Year spending.

After several years of rising global instability, 2025 continued to witness prolonged conflicts, resurgent protectionism, widening geopolitical tensions, and continued climate-related disruptions, creating a complex backdrop for economic activity and divergent asset performance. Despite these headwinds, global equity markets delivered a third consecutive year of double-digit gains, fueled by strong corporate earnings, resilient economic data, and investor enthusiasm for artificial intelligence (AI) and tech innovation.