Monthly Newsletter – April 2025

Each month, we deliver a comprehensive market overview, focused on the latest economic landscapes, leadership strategies, consumer actions, M&A transactions, investment activities, regulatory updates, and event highlights, providing you with actionable insights to make informed decisions, overcome challenges, and explore new opportunities.

With our proven track record, expertise, and deep market knowledge, we have had the privilege of advising and supporting many in shaping successful strategies, identifying the right opportunities, fostering connections with leading investors and prominent entrepreneurs, and facilitating impactful M&A transactions.

Stay ahead in this ever-evolving business landscape with our support and expertise. Together, we can navigate market dynamics confidently and empower your business and investment strategies!

If you have any questions or would like to see how we can help, please call +84 789 505 789 or email market@asart.com.vn, and we will get back to you. 

MARKET OVERVIEW

Preliminary estimates indicate that Vietnam’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded by a robust 6.93% year-on-year (yoy) in Q1 2025, marking the strongest first-quarter growth in five years. This acceleration was driven by broad-based recovery across all three key economic sectors:
• Agriculture, forestry, and fishery: Grew by 3.7%, contributing 6.1% to GDP growth.
• Industry and construction: Recorded a strong 7.4% expansion, accounting for 40.2% of GDP growth.
• Services: Led the upturn with 7.7% growth, contributing 53.7%, the largest share.

This positive Q1 performance reflects Vietnam’s sustained economic recovery efforts, and we remain bullish on Vietnam’s medium and long-term growth potential based on the country’s strong fundamentals and expansive global alliances, currently with 17 active Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with countries and regions around the world.

ASART maintains our forecast of 7.5% GDP growth for 2025, however with a high level of caution due to the heightened uncertainty and extreme volatility in the geopolitical and economic environment, especially surrounding the implementation of the U.S. tariffs on April 9, the subsequent 90-day pause of such tariffs on April 10, and the retaliation back and forth between the U.S. and China.

While the 90-day pause gives room for trade negotiations, the uncertainty remains and could have a potential significant impact on trading and investment activities in Vietnam in the next 3-6 months as some investors adopt a “wait-and-see” approach.


Source: GSO, ASART analysis
* Decimal and thousand separators follow English conventions

Inflation and Interest Rates
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in March 2025 increased by 3.1% compared to the same period in 2024. On average, in the first quarter of 2025, the CPI rose by 3.2% yoy.

According to data from the General Statistics Office (GSO), the decline in fuel and rice prices, in line with global trends, was a key factor contributing to a 0.03% decrease in CPI in March 2025 compared to the previous month. However, due to strong consumer demand during January and February, the CPI for the first quarter still maintained an upward trend, rising 3.2% yoy. Several commodity groups recorded significant price increases in Q1 2025, including: food and catering services, housing, electricity, water, fuel, and construction materials, as well as pharmaceuticals and healthcare services, highlighting the shifting dynamics of consumer demand and living costs in the early part of the year.


Source: GSO, ASART analysis
* Decimal and thousand separators follow English conventions

As of the end of Q1 2025, credit growth reached 3.9%, more than 2.5 times higher than the 1.4% recorded in the same period last year – a positive signal indicating that capital flows are being unlocked more vigorously compared to early 2024.

Interest rates witnessed an upward trend for a short while with several commercial banks raised deposit rates in the early months of the year, until the State Bank of Vietnam and the Government convened multiple meetings to steer and stabilize, prompting banks to simultaneously adjust rates downward.

According to Financial and Monetary Market Review, the average deposit interest rate in Q1 increased only slightly by 0.08%, while the average lending rate dropped by a further 0.4% compared to the end of 2024 – reflecting the clear and concerted efforts of the banking system to support, accompany, and fuel the economy’s recovery and growth.

We believe that interest rates may continue to decline in the coming months, in alignment with the policy direction and objectives set by the Government and the State Bank of Vietnam, despite market seems to demand otherwise. However, this easing trend must be accompanied by a clear plan and prudent management of exchange rates and inflation, to ensure overall macroeconomic stability and maintain investor confidence.

Trade Activities
In March 2025, Vietnam’s total trade value was estimated at USD 75.4 billion, an increase of 16.6% compared to the same period last year. Exports were projected at USD 38.5 billion, up 14.5% yoy, while imports were estimated at USD 36.9 billion, reflecting a 19% increase.

For the first quarter of 2025, total import and export turnover reached USD 202.5 billion, up 13.7% yoy, with exports rising by 10.6% and imports increasing by 17.0%. The trade balance recorded a surplus of USD 3.2 billion.


Source: GSO, ASART analysis
* Decimal and thousand separators follow English conventions

Investment and M&A
In March 2025, Vietnam attracted USD 4.1 billion in foreign direct investment (FDI), bringing the total FDI for Q1 to approximately USD 11 billion — an impressive 77.4% increase compared to the same period last year. Disbursed FDI capital was estimated at USD 4.96 billion, up 7.2%, indicating that capital inflows are not only strong on paper but are also being effectively implemented on the ground.

In Q1, 850 new projects were licensed, with total registered capital of USD 4.33 billion — up 11.5% in number but down 31.5% in value year-on-year. The manufacturing and processing sector remained the top destination, attracting USD 2.62 billion (60.5%), followed by real estate with USD 1.13 billion (26.1%), and other sectors with USD 581.5 million (13.4%).

Including both new and adjusted capital, manufacturing and processing drew a total of USD 6.3 billion (66.5%), real estate attracted USD 2.24 billion (23.6%), while other sectors received USD 943 million (9.9%).

By country and territory, Singapore led with USD 1.32 billion (30.5%), followed by China (USD 1.23 billion, 28.5%), Taiwan, Japan, Hong Kong (China), and the British Virgin Islands.

FDI-related M&A activities – primarily through share purchase transactions – continued to show strong momentum in Q1 2025, with 810 deals and a total capital contribution of USD 1.49 billion, marking a significant 226% increase compared to the same period last year. The manufacturing and processing sector led the way with USD 487.6 million (32.7%), followed by professional, scientific, and technological activities with USD 337.2 million (22.7%).

On the other hand, Vietnam’s outbound investment in Q1 2025 experienced an impressive surge. In the first three months of the year, 30 new projects were granted investment licenses with total registered capital from the Vietnamese side reaching USD 233.6 million – 9.4 times higher than the same period last year. Additionally, 5 projects saw capital adjustments, with an increase of USD 5.4 million, 24.3 times higher year-over-year. The majority of outbound capital was poured into electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning production and distribution (USD 111.2 million, 46.5%), manufacturing and processing (USD 65.6 million, 27.4%), and mining (USD 41 million, 17.1%) – reflecting a clear strategic diversification in the global investment orientation of Vietnamese enterprises.


Source: GSO, ASART analysis
* Decimal and thousand separators follow English conventions

Exchange Rate
The VND/USD selling exchange rate at Vietcombank remained relatively stable in March, with a slight increase from 25,730 to 25,740. By the end of Q1, it had risen by 0.7% compared to the beginning of the year. However, the outlook ahead is less certain. Given the escalating trade tensions, the increasing global economic uncertainty, and the potential for new tariff policies targeting Vietnam from the U.S., significant pressure on the exchange rate is expected. As a result, it is highly likely that the exchange rate will continue to rise sharply through the end of the year.


* Ask rate on the last day of the month, decimal and thousand separators follow English conventions
Source: Vietcombank, ASART analysis

M&A SPOTLIGHTS

VIETNAM
Healthcare
Mekong Capital invested in TNH Hospital Group JSC (HSX:TNH), one of the leading private hospital systems in Vietnam, aiming to provide high-quality medical services at affordable costs. The value and structure of the deal have not been disclosed.
 
Thien Viet Securities (TVS), a Vietnamese investment banking and private equity firm, has exited its five-year investment in the pediatric clinic chain Nhi Dong 315. TVS was the first institutional backer of Nhi Dong 315, participating in its Series A funding round in 2020 alongside BDA Capital Partners and Qatalyst Ventures, contributing to the USD 1.38 million raised.
 
F&B
VNDirect has decided to fully divest its 5.5% equity stake in Goldsun Food JSC, less than a year after making its initial USD 3 million investment.
 
Golden Gate acquired 99.98% of The Coffee House’s parent company for VND 270 billion (USD 10.5 million), a quarter of its 2021 valuation, as the coffee chain struggled with profitability, closed over 30 outlets, and saw revenue drop 11% to VND 700 billion (USD 27.5 million) in 2023.
 
Private equity firm Excelsior Capital Vietnam Partners (ECVP) has invested in local restaurant operator Aladdin. Aladdin operates primarily in the food and beverage (F&B) sector, currently owns a system of 50 restaurants across various locations, featuring two brands: Bò Tơ Restaurant, specializing in local delicacies, and Longwang, which offers Hong Kong-style insulated hot pot.
 
Technology
Qualcomm has acquired VinAI’s generative AI division, aiming to enhance its AI solutions across devices such as smartphones, PCs, and vehicles. Dr. Hung Bui, VinAI’s founder and CEO, will join Qualcomm.
 
Financial Services
Airwallex, Tencent-backed, Singapore-based, unicorn fintech startup acquired CTIN Pay, the intermediary payment service provider owned by CTIN, whose majority shareholder is VNPT.

THE WORLD
Technology
Google will acquire the fast-growing startup Wiz for approximately USD 32 billion in its largest deal to date, aiming to boost investments in cybersecurity to enhance its competitive edge in the cloud computing race against Amazon.com and Microsoft.
 
Pharmaceutical
Private equity firm Sycamore Partners will acquire Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA.O), the operator of one of America’s largest pharmacy retail chains, in a  USD 10 billion deal — a fraction of the  USD 100 billion valuation the company commanded just a decade ago.
 
Plastic
ADNOC and OMV will merge their polyolefin businesses — part of the petrochemical sector, producing thermoplastics like polyethylene and polypropylene — to form Borouge Group International, which will become the world’s fourth-largest polyolefin company. The new entity will also acquire Canada’s Nova Chemicals from Mubadala for USD 13.4 billion to expand into the North American market. The merged enterprise is valued at approximately USD 60 billion.
 
Logistics
An investor group backed by BlackRock (BLK.N) has agreed to acquire a majority stake in a Hong Kong-based company that operates ports on both sides of the Panama Canal for USD 22.8 billion — handing control of these strategic docks to a U.S. firm amid mounting pressure from the White House to wrest influence from China.
 
Energy
Whitecap Resources (WCP.TO) will merge with peer Veren (VRN.TO) in an all-stock deal valued at CD 15 billion (USD 10.43 billion), including debt, creating the seventh-largest oil and gas producer in Canada. This is the largest deal in the Canadian oil and gas industry so far this year.

INVESTMENT & RELEVANT NEWS

VIETNAM
Tariff blow unexpectedly hits Vietnam from the United States and subsequently is paused for 90 days.
On April 2, U.S. President Donald Trump announced import tariffs on goods from dozens of economies, with Vietnam facing a 46% rate. In response, the Vietnamese Government promptly convened to develop a negotiation strategy and sent Deputy Prime Minister Ho Duc Phoc to the U.S. for discussions. The Prime Minister also requested a 45-day delay in the tariff implementation to allow time for talks and preparation.
 
On the evening of April 4, General Secretary To Lam held a phone call with President Trump, affirming Vietnam’s readiness to reduce import tariffs on U.S. goods to 0% and asking for the same reciprocal treatment for Vietnamese exports. He also pledged to increase imports from the U.S. and facilitate greater American investment in Vietnam.
 
On April 10, President Trump announced a 90-day tariff pause for all countries, except China, where tariffs were raised to 125% due to China’s retaliation tariffs. Countries not retaliating against U.S. tariffs, including Vietnam, will face a 10% tariff until July.
 
Vietnam continues its revolution to streamline the administrative apparatus.
Vietnam has a new and streamlined National Assembly Members and Government Structure, and also amended and supplemented a number of laws and regulations at the 9th Extraordinary Session of the 15th National Assembly.
 
The National Assembly will also consider amending the Constitution at the upcoming 9th National Assembly session in May. Vietnam also plans to reduce approximately 50% of the provincial administrative units after the reorganization, and this decision will be voted on in the same session.
 
The MOF plans to divest from 131 state-owned enterprises, aiming to raise VND 10,040 billion. In February, budget revenue reached VND 499,800 billion, up 25.7% y-o-y, with expenditure at VND 293,800 billion. The Ministry also restructured 118 enterprises and issued VND 45,110 billion in bonds.
 
Vietnam is promoting the development of an international financial center
According to the Government’s plan, the Ho Chi Minh City financial center will be established and built from 2025, with the goal of completing it within five years. To accelerate the progress of the project, earlier this year, Ho Chi Minh City established a Steering Committee for the development of the financial center, consisting of 29 members, with the Secretary of the Ho Chi Minh City Party Committee, Nguyen Van Nen, as the chairman.
 
In the March 2025 assessment, Ho Chi Minh City has risen seven places in the Global Financial Centres Index (GFCI), now ranking 98th out of 119 cities – its highest position since first being included in the ranking in 2022. Meanwhile, New York (USA) retains the top spot, followed by London (UK), Hong Kong (China), and Singapore.
 
Leaders of the World Alliance of International Financial Centers (WAIFC), along with German and UK businesses, highly value Vietnam’s decision to establish a financial center, seeing it as a strategic step for the future. Germany is ready to share its experience, while the UK commits to support based on five principles: an open business environment, transparent legal framework, effective dispute resolution, modern digital infrastructure, and a high-quality workforce.
 
FTSE Russell has just released its market classification review, maintaining Vietnam on the watch list for an upgrade from Frontier Market to Secondary Emerging Market.

Vietnam strengthens bilateral relations and diplomacy.
Vietnam and Indonesia officially upgraded their relations to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, focusing on areas such as defense and security cooperation, economy (including agriculture, trade, investment, digital economy, energy transition), science and technology, innovation, and people-to-people exchanges through culture, education, sports, and tourism.
 
From March 11 to 13, General Secretary To Lam and his wife, along with a high-ranking Vietnamese delegation, made an official visit to Singapore. This is the first visit of General Secretary To Lam to Singapore in his capacity as General Secretary, marking an important milestone in upgrading Vietnam-Singapore relations to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. This upgrade reflects Vietnam’s commitment to elevating bilateral ties to new heights, in line with the country’s foreign policy.
 
Brazilian President Lula da Silva made a state visit to Vietnam from March 27 to 29 at the invitation of President Luong Cuong. As part of the visit, Brazil officially recognized Vietnam as a market economy.
 
National Assembly Chairman Tran Thanh Man, accompanied by his wife and a high-ranking delegation, paid an official visit to the Republic of Armenia from April 2 to 4 — the first visit by a senior Vietnamese leader since the establishment of diplomatic ties between the two countries.

On the afternoon of April 5, the delegation arrived in Uzbekistan to begin an official visit and attend the 150th General Assembly of the Inter-Parliamentary Union (IPU-150) from April 5 to 8, 2025.
 
On March 16, Deputy Prime Minister Nguyen Hoa Binh and the high-ranking Vietnamese delegation arrived in London, beginning their working visit to the United Kingdom, Luxembourg, and Germany.
 
From April 8 to 10, the Prime Minister of Spain paid an official visit to Vietnam, marking an important step forward in bilateral relations. Both sides agreed to work towards upgrading their ties to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, opening a new chapter of deeper and long-term cooperation across various fields. Currently, Spain is Vietnam’s fifth largest trading partner within the EU, while Vietnam is Spain’s largest trading partner in ASEAN. In 2024, bilateral trade reached USD 4.72 billion.
 
The Government and the State Bank of Vietnam continue to guide the market towards lowering interest rates to support the economy.
The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) has proactively decided to cut the open market interest rate by an additional 0.25 percentage points to lower overall market interest rates and support economic growth.
 
The Prime Minister has requested an immediate inspection and audit of commercial banks that have raised deposit interest rates in recent times.
 
19 domestic commercial banks have implemented interest rate reductions, including: Kien Long, Bac A, Viet A, PGBank, LPBank, Quoc dan (NCB), SHB, Nam A, VIB, VCBNeo, Eximbank, BIDV, Techcombank, Vikki, MBV, OCB, VietinBank, Agribank, and An Binh.
 
Vietnamese Government acknowledged the importance of the private sector and pilot several new initiatives in digital asset, cryptocurrency, carbon trading and increase of bank’s foreign ownership limits.
The private sector plays a crucial role in Vietnam’s economy 2024, with nearly 1 million businesses and 5 million household enterprises contributing 51% of GDP, over 30% of state revenue, and creating 40 million jobs, accounting for 82% of the workforce. Boosting this sector is a key driver of a more prosperous Vietnam.
 
Vietnam will pilot a state-licensed digital asset and cryptocurrency exchange, with the Ministry of Finance submitting the proposal by March 2025, in collaboration with the State Bank to establish legal guidelines.
 
Ministries and sectors are urgently finalizing the legal framework to pilot the carbon trading platform before June 2025.
 
MBBank, HDBank, and VPBank will have their foreign ownership limit increased to 49% after completing the mandatory transfer under the amended Decree No. 69/2025/NĐ-CP.

THE WORLD
The U.S. began imposing a 10% import tariff on goods from over 180 countries, as per President Donald Trump’s plan. Starting April 9, if there were no changes, the U.S.’s largest trading partners would have faced even higher tariffs, up to 50%. For instance, the European Union, Malaysia, Japan, South Korea, and India would have been subject to tariffs ranging from 20-26%, while China and Vietnam would have faced the highest tariffs, at 34% and 46%, respectively.

Hundreds of thousands of people in cities across the United States and Europe took to the streets in protest against the controversial retaliatory tariff policies of President Donald Trump’s administration.

China’s Ministry of Finance announced a 34% additional import tariff on all U.S. goods starting April 10, in response to President Donald Trump’s tariff policy. In turn, Trump warned he would raise tariffs to 50% if Beijing did not withdraw its retaliatory measure. After China refused to back down, the White House officially imposed a 104% tariff on Chinese goods, effective April 9. On April 10, President Trump announced a 90-day tariff pause for all countries, except China, where tariffs were raised to 125%.

Global M&A volume in Q1 2025 increased by 15.5% to USD 827 billion, driven by a rebound in March and a 58% rise in private equity buyouts, despite a record-low number of deals and ongoing geopolitical tensions, with growth seen in EMEA and APAC while the US experienced a decline.

In March, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) decided to keep interest rates unchanged at 4.25-4.5% but signaled two rate cuts later this year. The European Central Bank (ECB) implemented its sixth interest rate cut since the easing cycle began in June 2024, reducing the rate by 0.25 percentage points.

Right after President Trump announced plans to impose reciprocal tariffs on most countries, fears of a global recession surged, leading to a sharp decline in global stock markets and a spike in gold prices to a new record high. However, just days later, on the morning of April 10, stock markets across the Asia-Pacific and the U.S. rebounded strongly, following Wall Street’s biggest buying spree since 2008, after Trump declared a 90-day suspension of high tariffs on all countries except China.

REGULATION UPDATES*

Data Law, approved, effective from July 1 2025, regulates the fundamental aspects of digital data, including the construction, development, protection, management, processing, and utilization of digital data.

Value Added Tax (amended) Law, approved, effective from July 1 2025, highlights several key points, including: (i) a 5% tax rate applied to fertilizers, machinery, and specialized equipment for agricultural production, as well as fishing vessels, to help mitigate cost increases, support domestic production amid competition with imported goods, and provide stronger support for agricultural production, (ii) raising revenue threshold exempt from taxation to VND 200 million per year.

Amendment of the Constitution, drafting, under public consultation, the National Assembly is set to review proposed constitutional amendments during its up-coming session in May.

Amendment of Enterprise Law, draft, aims to create a more favorable, transparent, and fairer business environment.

Data Protection Law, draft, protects personal privacy, sets responsibilities for stakeholders, and establishes oversight and management mechanisms.

Science, Technology, and Innovation Law, draft, encourages research, technological application, and promotes innovation across socio-economic sectors.

Digital Technology Industry Law, draft, supports the development of the digital technology industry, fosters a conducive environment for tech enterprises, and ensures cybersecurity and safety.

Resolution on VAT reduction until the end of 2026, draft, to continue 2% VAT reduction to the end of 2026.

* Selected laws and regulations that are relevant to our business, clients, and partners only. 

EVENT HIGHLIGHTS

Conference on the Development of Financial Center in Vietnam – Ho Chi Minh, March 28
ASART participated in the Conference on the Development of Financial Centers in Vietnam, which brought together international experts and leaders to discuss the growth of financial centers in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) and Da Nang. The event reconfirmed Vietnam’s direction with the active participation of high-level leaders of the Government, including Minister of Finance Nguyen Van Thang, Chairman of HCMC People’s Committee Nguyen Van Duoc, Deputy Governor of the State Bank of Vietnam.

The conference featured four insightful panel discussions:

Panel 1 focused on global lessons for establishing International Financial Centers (IFCs), with insights from experts in London, Hong Kong, and Dubai on regulatory regimes, green finance, and free trade zones.

Panel 2 addressed policy directions, covering investment frameworks, financial technology trends, and human resources. The Ministry of Finance emphasized the importance of adapting international best practices to Vietnam’s unique market.

Panel 3 explored how Vietnam can position itself as a financial center, with discussions on collaboration between domestic and international banks, securities firms, and other financial entities.

Panel 4 highlighted the preparation of HCMC and Da Nang, focusing on infrastructure, regulatory frameworks, and talent development. Regional cooperation and global connections were also emphasized.

The conference provided valuable insights for Vietnamese Government’s commitment in building a successful IFC, reinforcing the importance of both local and international collaboration in shaping the country’s financial future.

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Disclaimer 
This newsletter is of general nature. It is for informational purpose only. It is not intended to serve as advice or recommendation, or to address the circumstances of any entity, individual, or matter.

No one should rely and/or act on the information presented without appropriate professional advice from ASART. ASART accepts no liability for the content of this newsletter, or for the consequences of any actions taken based on the opinions and information provided.

Where it contains statements, estimates, and projections with respect to the anticipated future performance of Vietnam, markets, companies, employees and related figures, such statements, estimates, and projections may or may not prove to be correct. There is neither representation nor guarantee made on the accuracy and completeness of the content presented.

Any person or entity who uses this newsletter to form a discussion, decide, or perform any actions must verify all relevant matters including all the information and statements contained in this newsletter, and must rely upon their own enquiries, investigations, judgement rather than upon the information and statements contained herein. ASART does not accept responsibility for any information contained herein and disclaims all liability to any entity, person, and matter arising out of or in connection with this newsletter.

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